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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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