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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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