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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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