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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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