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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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