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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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