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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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