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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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