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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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