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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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