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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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