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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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