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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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