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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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