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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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