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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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