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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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