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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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