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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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