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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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