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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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