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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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