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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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