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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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