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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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