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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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