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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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