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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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