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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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