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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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