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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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