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Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Banchero CostaIn the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv. This was still well below the levels we had in pre-Covid times, being -10.1% down from the 1276 mln tonnes shipped during 2019. At the start of 2022, however, global coal trade declined again. In the Jan-May period of 2022, global seaborne coal loadings declined by -0.7% y-o-y to 461.5 mln tonnes, from 464.8 mln tonnes in the same period of last year, Banchero Costa Research says in its latest report.

Banchero Costa further noted that, most of the decline was in the month of January, which was particularly disappointing at just 76.7 mln t, down by -17.6% y-o-y from January 2021, and was due to export restrictions from Indonesia. In more recent months, shipments from Indonesia recovered strongly, whilst Russian exports have been partially curtails by sanctions.

Overall, in Jan-May 2022, shipments from Indonesia were down by -1.9% y-o-y to 131.2 mln tonnes. Exports from Australia in the same time period were down -0.8% y-o-y to 143.0 mln tonnes.

Shipments from Russia in Jan-May 2022 were down by -6.0% y-o-y to 68.1 mln tonnes. The month of May 2022 was very good overall, with global exports of 107.4 mln tonnes, up +9.3% y-o-y. In the month of May 2022, Indonesia exported 34.5 mln tonnes, up +20.0% from 28.8 mln tonnes in the same month in 2021, the research report from Banchero Costa noted.

According to the report, Australia exported 30.7 mln tonnes in May 2022, +6.3% y-o-y. From Russia it was 17.5 mln t, +1.8% y-o-y. From South Africa,  volumes were down -21.0% y-o-y in May 2022 to 4.7 mln tonnes. Japan is still the third largest seaborne importer of coal worldwide after India and China, with a 15.8% share of global seaborne coal imports this year, just behind India’s 17.0% share and China’s 16.0%.

Coal shipments into Japan have been on a generally negative trend over the last decade, due to the country’s demographic and economic trends. In the full year 2018, imports into Japan declined by -1.2% y-o-y to 177.2 mln tonnes.

Banchero Costa also noted, in 2019, volumes declined by -4.3% y-o-y to 169.5 mln tonnes. In 2020, imports declined further by -3.1% y-o-y to 164.1 mln tonnes. In 2021, they rebounded by +4.5% yo-y to 171.6 mln tonnes. In the first 5 months of 2022, coal imports into Japan were again up by +2.3% y-o-y to 70.8 mln tonnes from 69.2 mln tonnes in the same period of last year.

The research report also said, there have been quite remarkable reshuffles in terms of trade patterns over the last few years, in large part as a consequence of China’s boycott of Australian coal. Coal exports from Australia to Mainland China declined by -98.7% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2021, to just 0.9 mln tonnes, from 70.4 mln t in 2020. A large share of that coal ended up going to Japan. In Jan-Dec 2021, Australia exported 114.6 mln t of coal to Japan, up +14.1% y-o-y, from 100.3 mln in 2020.

On the other hand, Banchero Costa research report said, shipments from Indonesia to Japan declined by -19.2% y-o-y in 2021 to 21.0 mln tonnes, from 26.0 mln t in 2020.

Imports from Russia to Japan declined slightly by -3.3% y-o-y in 2021 to 16.3 mln tonnes, from the record 16.9 mln tonnes in 2020. In the first 5 months of 2022, we have seen a sharp decline in imports from Russia, down by -21.4% y-o-y to 5.0 mln tonnes, from 6.4 mln t in the same period last year.

On the other hand, shipments from Indonesia to Japan rebounded by +14.7% y-o-y in the first 5 months of 2022 to 10.0 mln tonnes. From Australia they are also marginally up so far this year, by +1.2% y-o-y to 47.6 mln tonnes. Australia still accounts for 67.3% of Japan’s total coal imports, followed by Indonesia with a 14.2% share, Canada with 8.1%, and Russia with 7.1%.


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