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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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