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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
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Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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