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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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