We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
|
|
|
Showing 471 to 475 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
