We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
|
|
|
Showing 111 to 115 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
