We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
|
|
|
Showing 76 to 80 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
