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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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