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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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