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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- The University of Queensland
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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