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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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