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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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