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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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