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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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