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Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsChinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in January 2020 was exceptionally high due to restrictions at the end of 2019, shows China and India Data Snapshot of Fitch Ratings.
 
Data Snapshot further shows, imports of thermal coal edged up 0.1% on a sequential basis in 5M21. China’s thermal power generation rose by 16.0% yoy in 5M21, driven by strong economic  growth and limited incremental contribution from hydropower. Wind power generation surged by 47% in 5M21. Still, wind accounts for only one-fifth of  the power generation  growth in the period due to the limited absolute size. Aggressive installation of wind and solar capacity in China is not yet sufficient to meet the country’s incremental power. demand.
 
According to Data Snapshot of Fitch Ratings, Fitch estimates that Indian power demand will increase by around 6% in the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22), driving improvement in plant load factors (PLFs) of coal-based thermal power plants in the near term.  We expect the impact on power demand from the recent resurgence in Covid-19 to be limited.  Furthermore, the slowdown in renewable capacity additions since 2020, as a result of delays in construction and signing of power purchase agreements by distribution companies, should benefit thermal power plants. That said, we believe renewable energy will account for a larger portion of India’s electricity output in the long term and will pressure PLFs of coal-fired power projects. The PLFs of coal-fired plants rose above pre-pandemic levels and remained consistently above 60% during January-April 2021 for the first time in the past five years. PLFs fell by 54% in May, hit by the resurgence in Covid-19 but remained higher than last year (47%).  
 
China and India Data Snapshot of Fitch Ratings noted that, Indonesian coal exports fell by 37% yoy in1Q21 due to adverse weather conditions that hurt production. Fitch expects production to improve throughout the rest of the year, and Indonesian regulators have increased the 2021output target to 625 million tonnes, against 563 million tonnes of production in 2020.  Fitch expects the majority of the production increases to be used for exports.
 
According to China and India Data Snapshot of Fitch Ratings, Australian thermal coal exports continued to decline, falling by 8% qoq and 11% yoy in 1Q21,as exports to China have completely halted. 
 
Exports to India remained at a high level of 4.32 million tonnes in the quarter but were insufficient to compensate fully for the volume loss from China’s soft-ban on Australian coal since mid-October  2020. 
 
Japan's power demand increased by3% yoy in May due to the limited impact from the country’s third state of emergency because of Covid-19. However,  power demand in 5M21 stayed below most historical years other than 2020. Japan’s coal import volume declined by 5.4% yoy in 4M21, of which imported  thermal coal decreased by 3.1%.


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