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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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