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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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