We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 “Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquired asset exposes the buyer less. This has always been the essence of investing in most industries. Of course, like everything else, it’s is easier said than done when a market is going through a trough. Apart from the purchase cost, you still have to spend money in order to subsidize the asset until the market recovers. And of course, there is always the question of whether the market has reached a bottom or not. Anyway, all of these are known.
So now that we are experiencing a bullish dry bulk market and a phenomenal container market, it might be logical to speculate that tankers are not far behind on their way to recovery. With that said, investing in tankers is the only counter cyclical move you could do today at least within the 3 vanilla sectors.
Currently, the tanker market continues to remain weak on the back of constrained oil supply from OPEC+, but last year’s record high crude oil inventories have drawn down extensively, currently are at the bottom of the 5 year average range. At the same time, oil demand is set to recover signaling that the tanker trough might be hopefully ending. Goldman Sachs projects oil demand to increase by +5.0 million barrels per day over the next 6 months, with this summer particularly likely to witness the biggest ever oil demand increase. Additional oil supplies will need to flow into the market; OPEC+ has already decided to gradually increase production through July. A favorable scenario would dictate a further increase in OPEC+ supply by Q4, even if Iranian barrels return to the market, in order to cope with the demand.
But up to this date, despite a lackluster tanker freight market, asset values have increased as underlying steel prices have reached record high levels providing support. The increase in tanker asset values has been more pronounced for younger units, where the majority of SnP interest lies, rather than older ones.
Since January, approximately 124 tankers have changed hands, with the majority being AFRAs (58), followed by VLCCs (41) and SUEZMAXs (25). It makes sense for shipowners to look into buying second hand crude ships purely out of speculation as a tanker recovery is well overdue. The majority of the ships sold were in the 13-17 years age bracket, mostly due to high supply of candidates (e.g. approx. 38% of the Aframax fleet is above 15Y Old). It is certain that a lot of buyers bidding on 12-13 year ships would also go after 10Y or 8Y old tonnage if there was availability.
Recently, we have seen an increase in interest for ships built in after 2010 and almost no interest for older ships with the asset value gains shaped accordingly. Indicatively, 10Y old Aframax values are estimated to have increased by +27.0% since Q4 2020, while 15Y old values have only gained +14.0% over the same period. It might make sense to assume that since the anticipated recovery is yet to be seen, buyers are not willing to risk it on older ships. But given what we are currently witnessing on the dry and box sectors is this wise?
We see 10-15 year old container ships that a year ago might have being sold at demolition levels now being fixed for 4-5 years in the low 40k for further trading. We are witnessing the so called obsolete 28k handy fetching above 20k p/d. Although the tanker regulatory environment, makes older crude tankers less competitive in traditional trades where oil majors are involved even in a tanker recovery, the 15Y Old to 5Y old ratio at this point being at approx. 40% (the lowest we have seen is 30% during 2013 and the highest 60% during 2009) might be enticing enough to invest into an older asset and take advantage of a broader tanker market recovery in the near future. In other words, even older units can benefit in a market recovery.
As in the famous quote “A rising tide lifts all boats.”
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
|
|
|
Showing 656 to 660 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
