We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 “Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquired asset exposes the buyer less. This has always been the essence of investing in most industries. Of course, like everything else, it’s is easier said than done when a market is going through a trough. Apart from the purchase cost, you still have to spend money in order to subsidize the asset until the market recovers. And of course, there is always the question of whether the market has reached a bottom or not. Anyway, all of these are known.
So now that we are experiencing a bullish dry bulk market and a phenomenal container market, it might be logical to speculate that tankers are not far behind on their way to recovery. With that said, investing in tankers is the only counter cyclical move you could do today at least within the 3 vanilla sectors.
Currently, the tanker market continues to remain weak on the back of constrained oil supply from OPEC+, but last year’s record high crude oil inventories have drawn down extensively, currently are at the bottom of the 5 year average range. At the same time, oil demand is set to recover signaling that the tanker trough might be hopefully ending. Goldman Sachs projects oil demand to increase by +5.0 million barrels per day over the next 6 months, with this summer particularly likely to witness the biggest ever oil demand increase. Additional oil supplies will need to flow into the market; OPEC+ has already decided to gradually increase production through July. A favorable scenario would dictate a further increase in OPEC+ supply by Q4, even if Iranian barrels return to the market, in order to cope with the demand.
But up to this date, despite a lackluster tanker freight market, asset values have increased as underlying steel prices have reached record high levels providing support. The increase in tanker asset values has been more pronounced for younger units, where the majority of SnP interest lies, rather than older ones.
Since January, approximately 124 tankers have changed hands, with the majority being AFRAs (58), followed by VLCCs (41) and SUEZMAXs (25). It makes sense for shipowners to look into buying second hand crude ships purely out of speculation as a tanker recovery is well overdue. The majority of the ships sold were in the 13-17 years age bracket, mostly due to high supply of candidates (e.g. approx. 38% of the Aframax fleet is above 15Y Old). It is certain that a lot of buyers bidding on 12-13 year ships would also go after 10Y or 8Y old tonnage if there was availability.
Recently, we have seen an increase in interest for ships built in after 2010 and almost no interest for older ships with the asset value gains shaped accordingly. Indicatively, 10Y old Aframax values are estimated to have increased by +27.0% since Q4 2020, while 15Y old values have only gained +14.0% over the same period. It might make sense to assume that since the anticipated recovery is yet to be seen, buyers are not willing to risk it on older ships. But given what we are currently witnessing on the dry and box sectors is this wise?
We see 10-15 year old container ships that a year ago might have being sold at demolition levels now being fixed for 4-5 years in the low 40k for further trading. We are witnessing the so called obsolete 28k handy fetching above 20k p/d. Although the tanker regulatory environment, makes older crude tankers less competitive in traditional trades where oil majors are involved even in a tanker recovery, the 15Y Old to 5Y old ratio at this point being at approx. 40% (the lowest we have seen is 30% during 2013 and the highest 60% during 2009) might be enticing enough to invest into an older asset and take advantage of a broader tanker market recovery in the near future. In other words, even older units can benefit in a market recovery.
As in the famous quote “A rising tide lifts all boats.”
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
|
|
|
Showing 576 to 580 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
