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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 24 June 24
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The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
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Friday, 14 June 24
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Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
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The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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