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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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