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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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