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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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