We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
|
|
|
Showing 166 to 170 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
